How it works

The Dividend Forecaster turns a set of holdings into a year-by-year income projection in a few conceptual stages. This page explains those stages in plain English so you understand what the numbers rest on and where the limits sit. The Dividend Forecaster is available on Pro Lite and Pro.

What it shows

The tool builds its projection in the following stages.

Loading holdings and reading history

First it loads the dividend-paying holdings from your chosen source and reads each one's dividend history. It detects how often each company pays (monthly, quarterly, semi-annual, or annual) and excludes any holding with no dividend history.

Estimating a growth rate

For each holding, the tool estimates a forward dividend growth rate from that holding's own dividend history, with sensible limits so a single unusual year does not distort the projection. The exact limits it applies are part of GNG's proprietary methodology.

Projecting income forward

It then projects each holding's dividend forward year by year, applying that growth rate. If reinvestment is on, each projected dividend buys more shares of the same stock, so both the share count and the income compound over time. If reinvestment is off, the share count stays flat and dividends are treated as cash.

Applying tax and spreading across months

The tool applies your tax rate to produce after-tax figures alongside the gross figures. It then distributes each year's income into months using each holding's payment schedule, which feeds the monthly chart, the payment schedule, and the payment calendar.

Running one of two modes

In the deterministic mode, the result is a single projected path. In the probabilistic mode, the tool runs many simulated paths, varying the inputs across realistic ranges, and reports a central projection plus a confidence band. The band lets you see the plausible spread of outcomes rather than one fixed line. The simulation internals are part of GNG's proprietary methodology.

Reading dividend safety

The dividend safety read is computed per holding from high-level inputs such as payout ratio, dividend growth history, earnings stability, and debt, then summarized at the portfolio level. The safety-score weighting is part of GNG's proprietary methodology. For where the safety read appears, see Results and metrics.

Use cases

Understand why a holding's projected income grows the way it does before you act on the number.
See how reinvestment changes the shape of the projection by comparing a run with it on against one with it off.
Judge how much confidence to place in a single figure by reading the spread of the probabilistic band.

Limitations and disclosures

The projection assumes each company keeps paying and keeps its current payment frequency, and it grows dividends from each holding's own historical pattern. It is a model of one plausible future for your income, not a guarantee. Companies can raise, freeze, or cut dividends in ways history does not predict.

GNG Research provides equity research and educational tools, not investment advice. Nothing on the platform is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider your circumstances before making any investment decision.