Charts and graphs

The results report includes two primary charts side by side under Forecast Charts: a projected-value fan chart and an outcome histogram. A correlation heatmap appears when the basket holds more than one stock, and an overlaid paths chart appears in compare mode. This page explains what each chart plots and how to read it. The tool is available to Free, Pro Lite, and Pro accounts.

Before you begin

Run a simulation first. The charts appear only after a run completes. For the procedure, see Run your first simulation.

What it shows

The charts turn thousands of simulated paths into a few readable summaries. The fan chart shows how value evolves over time, the histogram shows where the paths ended, the heatmap shows how the holdings move together, and the compare chart overlays several runs. The sections below describe each one.

Projected value over time (fan chart)

This chart plots how the portfolio value evolves across the time horizon, summarized as percentile paths rather than every individual path.

Axes: the horizontal axis is time, labeled adaptively as trading days, months, or years depending on the horizon you chose. The vertical axis is portfolio value in dollars, formatted as K, M, or B.
Series:
- A solid Median line, the 50th percentile path.
- An inner shaded 50 percent range band covering the 25th to 75th percentile.
- An outer shaded 90 percent range band covering the 5th to 95th percentile.
- A dashed horizontal Start reference line at your starting capital.

To read it, treat the median line as the typical path. Half of all simulations land inside the inner band, and nine in ten land inside the outer band. The bands widen with time and with more volatile holdings, which is the visual signature of growing uncertainty. Hovering or tapping any point opens a tooltip listing the 95th, 75th, median, 25th, and 5th percentile values at that moment, each with its percent change versus start, plus the dollar width of the 50 percent and 90 percent ranges.

Outcome distribution (histogram)

This chart plots how often each ending value occurred across all simulated paths, grouped into 50 bins.

Axes: the horizontal axis is final portfolio value, with bin labels in dollars. The vertical axis is probability, the share of simulations whose final value fell in that range, shown as a percentage.
Series: vertical bars for each bin, plus a dashed vertical Start line marking your initial capital.

To read it, taller bars are more common ending values, and the thin tails at the edges are rare extremes. Bars to the right of the Start line ended profitable; bars to the left ended at a loss. A distribution that leans right means more upside outcomes, and a long left tail means meaningful downside risk. Hovering a bar shows the exact probability for that range.

Correlation heatmap (two or more holdings)

This grid appears when the basket holds more than one stock. It plots how tightly each pair of holdings moved together over the lookback window, as a colored grid, alongside the average pairwise correlation and the spread between the most and least correlated pairs.

To read it, lower average correlation and a wide spread indicate better diversification, because the holdings do not all rise and fall in unison. High correlation across the grid means the basket behaves like a single bet. For the statistic behind it, see the calculation section below.

Overlaid projected paths (compare mode)

This chart appears in compare mode. It overlays the median paths and ranges of two to five saved runs on one chart, so you can see which scenario trends higher and which carries a wider band of uncertainty.

To read it, a higher line is a better median outcome, and a wider band is more uncertainty. Use it to see, for example, how the downside band widens when you switch from Current Conditions to the 2008 Crisis scenario. For the full compare workflow, see Saved runs and comparison.

Inputs

The charts take no input of their own. They render from the run you configured in the setup panel. The horizon sets the time axis, the simulation quality sets how many paths feed the bands and bars, and the basket sets the holdings shown in the heatmap. For those controls, see Inputs and settings.

Outputs and how to read them

Each chart is a visual summary of the same underlying figures reported as numbers elsewhere. The fan chart's bands are the percentile outcomes, the histogram is the distribution of ending values, and the heatmap is the pairwise correlation. For the numeric versions, see Results and metrics.

How it is calculated

The percentile bands and the histogram come straight from sorting the ending values of every path. The correlation grid uses a standard statistic on the two holdings' daily returns over the lookback window.

The Pearson correlation coefficient measures how closely two return series move together, on a scale from minus 1 to plus 1.

correlation = covariance(a, b) / (standard deviation a × standard deviation b)

In this formula, a and b are the two holdings' daily returns over the lookback window, covariance measures how they vary together, and each standard deviation measures how much a single series scatters. A value near plus 1 means the two move almost in lockstep, near 0 means little relationship, and near minus 1 means they move in opposite directions. For example, two holdings with a correlation of 0.85 mostly rise and fall together, so pairing them adds little diversification.

Data and timing

The charts are built from the same daily split-and-dividend-adjusted closing prices the run uses. Market data comes from AlphaVantage, with Nasdaq-listed quotes delivered through AlphaVantage, refreshed each trading day after the close.

Use cases

Read the fan chart to judge how wide the range of outcomes becomes by the end of the horizon.
Read the histogram to see whether outcomes lean toward gains or carry a long downside tail.
Read the heatmap to confirm a basket is genuinely spread out rather than one concentrated bet.
Overlay runs in compare mode to see how the downside widens under a harsher scenario.

Limitations and disclosures

The bands and bars summarize a model, not a forecast. They widen or shift with the scenario and lookback you choose, and a smoother chart from more paths does not mean a more certain future. The charts present modeled projections that can fall outside the simulated range in real markets.

GNG Research provides equity research and educational tools, not investment advice. Nothing on the platform is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider your circumstances before making any investment decision.