Run your first simulation
This quickstart walks you through producing your first projection: choose what to simulate, set a horizon and scenario, run, and read the headline numbers. It is for any signed-in account. Free and Pro Lite run on a custom basket of stocks; Pro can also simulate saved, model, and combined portfolios.
Before you begin
- Sign in to your account. The tool is available to Free, Pro Lite, and Pro.
- Know which tickers or portfolio you want to project. Free and Pro Lite build a custom basket; Pro can load a saved portfolio.
- Each tier has a daily run cap and a ticker limit. For the figures, see Plans and tiers.
Steps
Open the tool
Go to the Monte Carlo tool. The setup panel appears as a four-step column on the left.
Pick what to simulate
In step 1, choose a source. On Free and Pro Lite, select Custom Stocks and add one or more tickers with the search box. On Pro, you can instead select My Portfolios, Model Portfolios, or Combined Portfolios.
Set the allocation
Leave the allocation on Equal weights, or open the weights editor to set custom percentages that total 100 percent.
Name the run and set starting capital
In step 2, optionally name the run. Then set Starting capital to a custom dollar amount, or to the current value of a selected portfolio.
Choose horizon, scenario, and quality
In step 3, choose a Time Horizon (for example 5 Years), a Risk Scenario (Current Conditions is the baseline), and a Simulation Quality level (Standard is the recommended default).
Optional: open Advanced
Open step 4, Advanced, to add contributions or withdrawals, a target value, rebalancing, or transaction costs. The defaults are sensible, so you can skip this step.
Run the simulation
Select Run. A progress indicator runs for roughly 8 seconds to 3 minutes, depending on the quality level you chose.
Read the results
Read the headline numbers first: Expected Final Value, Median Outcome, and Probability of Loss. Then scroll through the charts and the detail sections.
Optional: export or compare
Select Export to download the run as a spreadsheet, or Compare to line it up against other saved runs.