Results and metrics

When a run completes, the report fills with figures that summarize thousands of simulated paths. This page documents every figure the report can show, grouped as it appears on screen, with what each one means and how to read it. The tool is available to Free, Pro Lite, and Pro accounts.

Before you begin

Run a simulation first. The report appears only after a run completes. For the procedure, see Run your first simulation.

What it shows

The report leads with three headline numbers, then expands into risk analysis, risk-adjusted performance, outcome probabilities, a per-holding breakdown, deep distribution statistics, and an optional cash-flow and costs block. A run summary footer records the settings the run used. The sections below cover each block in order.

Outputs and how to read them

Headline strip

These three numbers are the fastest read of a run.

Expected Final Value: the average ending value across every path, with its percent growth over the horizon. Rare large winners pull it up, so treat it as optimistic and use the median for the typical case.
Median Outcome (50th percentile): half of paths end above this value and half below. It is the single most representative estimate, shown with its percent return.
Probability of Loss: the share of paths finishing below your starting capital. It is labeled Low risk under 20 percent, Moderate risk between 20 and 40 percent, and High risk above 40 percent.

Risk analysis

This block describes the downside and the extremes.

Value at Risk (95 percent): a dollar loss threshold. There is a 5 percent chance of losing more than this.
Value at Risk (99 percent): the same idea at the 1 percent extreme.
Conditional VaR (95 percent): the average loss if you do land in the worst 5 percent of outcomes.
Maximum Drawdown: the typical (median) worst peak-to-trough decline along a path, as a percent.
Win Rate: the percent of paths ending profitable, the mirror of Probability of Loss.
Best Case (95th percentile): the value above which only the top 5 percent of outcomes finish, with its percent growth.
Upside Capture: the average return across profitable paths.
Downside Capture: the average return across losing paths.

Performance and outcome probabilities

This block reports risk-adjusted return ratios and the chance of crossing set thresholds.

Risk-adjusted ratios, where higher is better:

Sharpe Ratio: return per unit of total risk. Labeled Fair, Good (above 1), or Excellent (above 2).
Sortino Ratio: like Sharpe, but penalizes only downside volatility.
Calmar Ratio: annualized return divided by maximum drawdown.

Outcome probabilities, the chance of crossing a threshold across all paths:

Loss greater than 10 percent.
Loss greater than 20 percent.
Gain greater than 50 percent.
Gain greater than 100 percent, doubling your money.

Holdings breakdown

This table has one row per holding and shows what each one contributed as a simulation input.

Symbol: the ticker, linked to its company page.
Weight: the share of the portfolio for this holding. Rows total 100 percent.
Return: the holding's historical return, annualized, used as a simulation input.
Volatility: the holding's standard deviation of returns, annualized.
Data: the length of price history available, in years. Short histories are flagged with a warning marker because they produce less reliable estimates.
Contribution: weight multiplied by return, the percentage points of expected return this holding produces.

Distribution detail

This block reports the shape of the outcome distribution in three groups.

Percentile outcomes, dollar checkpoints each shown with percent change versus start:

5th percentile: the pessimistic tail; only 5 percent of paths ended below this.
25th percentile: the bottom of the inter-quartile range.
Median: the 50th percentile.
75th percentile: the top of the inter-quartile range.
95th percentile: the optimistic tail; only 5 percent of paths ended above this.

Return shape:

Skewness: the asymmetry of the spread. Positive means more extreme gains, negative means more extreme losses, and near zero is roughly symmetric.
Kurtosis: how fat the tails are. Above 3 means fatter tails, so more extreme outcomes than a normal bell curve.
Min Return: the single worst total return seen across all paths, a tail indicator rather than a likely outcome.
Max Return: the single best total return seen across all paths.

Extreme outcomes:

Peak Gain (Median): the typical highest point a path reached during the horizon.
Peak Gain (Best): the best peak gain observed across all paths.
Worst Drawdown: the most severe peak-to-trough decline across all paths.
Median Drawdown: the typical maximum drawdown.

Cash flow and transaction costs

This block appears only when you configure a cash flow, a target, or a cost.

Total Contributions: total dollars contributed or withdrawn during the run.
Net-of-Contributions Return: the portfolio's return with the effect of your cash flows removed, so growth is not flattered by deposits.
Total Transaction Costs: total spent on commissions and slippage during rebalancing trades.
Cost Drag: those costs as a percent of final value, where lower is better.
Target Portfolio Value: the goal you set.
Target Hit Probability: the chance of reaching or exceeding the goal, labeled by confidence level.
Median Shortfall: the typical amount below target when a path misses, shown only when relevant.
Median Excess: the typical amount above target when a path beats it, shown only when relevant.

Run summary

This footer records the settings the run used.

Simulations: the number of paths generated.
Time Horizon: the forward period.
Starting Capital: the value at time zero that every return is measured against.
Risk-Free Rate: the assumed riskless return used inside the Sharpe and Sortino ratios.

How it is calculated

Several headline figures are simple counts over the paths, so they are worth showing in full. The Probability of Loss is the count of paths ending below your starting capital, divided by the total number of paths.

probability of loss = losing paths / total paths

In this formula, losing paths is the number of simulated paths whose final value finished below your starting capital, and total paths is the simulation quality you chose, from 5,000 to 100,000. For example, if 18,000 of 100,000 paths finish below your start, the Probability of Loss is 18 percent and the Win Rate is the remaining 82 percent.

The Value at Risk at 95 percent is the 5th-percentile ending value minus your starting capital.

VaR₉₅ = 5th percentile value − starting capital

Here 5th percentile value is the ending value that only 5 percent of paths fell below, and starting capital is your time-zero amount, both in dollars. For example, a 5th-percentile ending value of 82,000 on a 100,000 start gives a Value at Risk of minus 18,000, meaning a 5 percent chance of losing more than 18,000. For the full method that produces these paths, see How it works.

Data and timing

Every figure derives from the run's simulated paths, which are built on daily split-and-dividend-adjusted closing prices. Market data comes from AlphaVantage, with Nasdaq-listed quotes delivered through AlphaVantage, refreshed each trading day after the close.

Use cases

Read the headline strip to gauge the typical outcome and the chance of a loss at a glance.
Read the risk analysis to size the worst plausible loss before committing capital.
Compare the Sharpe, Sortino, and Calmar ratios across runs to judge risk-adjusted quality.
Read the holdings breakdown to see which holdings drive the expected return.

Limitations and disclosures

Every figure is a probability inside the model's assumptions, not a guarantee about markets. The risk-free rate used in the ratios is a fixed assumption, so those ratios shift if the real cash rate differs, and tail figures such as Min Return describe rare extremes rather than likely outcomes. Results are modeled projections that real markets can fall outside.

GNG Research provides equity research and educational tools, not investment advice. Nothing on the platform is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider your circumstances before making any investment decision.